IMPROVING APPRENTICESHIP COMPLETION RATES (2021)

Skilled tradespeople are vital to supporting industries that drive Canada's economy. Strong economic growth in areas such as construction and natural resources, combined with an aging and retiring workforce, have contributed to increased demand for skilled tradespeople in Canada. Registration in apprenticeship programs has been increasing steadily over the last few years, but the growth in the number of completions has not kept pace.

Background

In 2003, the Industry Training Authority (ITA) was established and a ‘BC model’ for trades training. The 2003 BC model was distinguished by the deregulation of skilled trades and modularized training and certification.[1]

Today, British Columbia remains distinct from other provinces in its approach to apprenticeship training.

The impacts of BC’s 2003 model have now come into focus just as growth in the demand for skilled trades and the need to replace an aging workforce approach peak levels. While many of the general goals of the 2003 revisions have been achieved, including increasing the overall number of apprenticeship registrations and completions, the system has had a number of unintended consequences. Using data from the Statistics Canada Registered Apprenticeship Information System (RAIS) database, this report reveals a number of troubling findings:

• Overall apprenticeship completion rates have declined compared to a decade ago and relative to other jurisdictions;
• Lower average rates of completion for trades that are compulsory in other jurisdictions suggest that the absence of compulsory trade certification in BC decreases the motivation for apprentices to complete;
• Significant increases in program registrations and certifications have been achieved, but much of the increase can be attributed to a small number of trades and a subset of newly established subtrades  which do not afford workers the same degree of mobility as nationally recognized Red Seal trades. Many of the newly established sub-trades introduced to meet industry demands have been eliminated due to low enrolment and poor training outcomes;
• Certification in Red Seal trades has declined significantly in BC, from 84% in the 2001 to 2004 period to 65% in the 2011 to 2014 period. This decline is greater than that experienced in the rest of Canada and suggests fewer tradespeople in BC are completing the full Red Seal certification since implementation. This trend has continued through to 2017 with a modest increase in completion rates while continuing to lag behind the rest of Canada; and
• Trade deregulation and modularized training and certification has resulted in a ‘trade shift’ toward a higher concentration of registrations and completions in a smaller number of trades. This ‘trade shift’ is on opposite ends of the pay scale, with highly paid industrial trades on one end and service sector occupations with lesser qualifications on the other trades.

The continued ‘narrowing and shallowing’ of trades training system carries a major risk. If economic conditions change or the types of skills in demand change in BC, the workforce risks not having the depth and breadth of skills, both individually and collectively, required to adapt.

The increased incidence of workplace injury suggests that the ITA under the 2003 model has been unable to ensure the quality of safety training programs in BC. The injury rate for BC tradespeople is nearly four

times that of their counterparts in Ontario. Although reported lost-time injuries in the skilled trades have been decreasing across all jurisdictions, injury rates have been consistently and significantly higher in BC than in other provinces and have not changed substantially since 2010.

There have been recent changes to BC’s system. Training times for many trades have increased to be in line with those of other jurisdictions, and many smaller apprenticeship programs created under the 2003 system have been eliminated in favour of returning to the original apprenticeship format (e.g. re-instating the full scope carpenter trade apprenticeship instead of dividing it into two sub-trades). There are still changes required to contribute to an increase in completion rates and the continuation of a strong and skilled workforce.

The Certificate of Qualification credential is an important labour market signal that the person possesses the fundamental competencies and skills needed in the trade, which facilitates mobility between employers. Higher wages, lower unemployment, more productive workers, and higher return on training tax dollars are some of the positive outcomes when individuals complete their programs.[2] Prior to the introduction of the ITA, apprenticeship completion rates in British Columbia were just over 50%. Although considered low by many, this was comparable to rates in other provinces. A cohort study published by Statistics Canada in 2010 found that, on average, just over half (53%) of BC apprentices who registered in 1994 and 1995 completed their respective programs by 2005.[3] This was slightly higher than the national average of 49% (1994) and 51% (1995). After the 2003 changes, BC encouragingly experienced a marked increase in apprenticeship completion rates, following its spike in registrations. This sparked optimism for the policy change, given that increasing training completion rates was a key objective of BC’s 2003 model. The number of overall completions peaked at nearly 7,000 in 2012—more than twice the number of completions in the early 2000s. Not surprisingly, the largest increases in completions occurred in trades that experienced the biggest increase in registrations, including welding and food services. In 2014, these two trades accounted for nearly four in 10 certifications issued in the province, compared to just 7%, or less than one in 10, in 2004. Figure 6: Apprenticeship Registrations and Completions in British Columbia Source: RAIS, Statistics Canada.

However, this rise in overall numbers is misleading. Although completions increased in BC following the surge in registrations, recent estimates using cohort ratios, which compare program completions to program registrations over time, reveal that overall completion rates in BC have actually fallen compared to the early 2000s and in relation to other provinces. Applying the cohort-ratio measure to the 50 largest programs in BC (in terms of registrations) across time shows that overall completion rates in BC averaged 46% over the four years prior to 2004. A similar completion rate of 47% was estimated for the rest of Canada over the same period. These estimates are generally in line with the findings of previous Statistics Canada cohort studies over a similar period. Applying the same methodology for the period between 2004 and 2014 (following the establishment of the ITA and the introduction of the BC model), the average overall completion rate in BC falls to 42%, compared to a small increase nationally to 48%. Even the ITAs own reports estimate completion rates at 36%. The decline in completion rates provides some evidence that the BC model has not achieved one of its key objectives: to increase training completion rates within skilled trades.

This overall decline in completion rates is accompanied by marked differences in completion rates across individual programs in BC. Lower average rates of completion for trades that are compulsory in other jurisdictions suggest that the absence of compulsory trade certification in BC decreases the motivation for apprentices to complete. The link between compulsory certification and completions has been established in previous studies. A study conducted by Patrick Coe concludes that “apprenticeship programmes for which certification is mandatory had completion rates that are about 10 percentage points higher than those without mandatory certification.”[4] The analysis of BC completion rates suggests that lack of compulsory certification may contribute to lower completion rates in some trades, but not others. Completion rates in BC for automotive service technicians and refrigeration and air-conditioning mechanics are above the averages for the rest of Canada, and, in the case of automotive service technicians, significantly so (59% versus 46%). In these cases, the higher completion rate may be influenced by the greater potential for permanent employment as opposed to the potential for multiple employers accompanied by periods of unemployment in the construction trades. In addition, completion rates could also be influenced through apprentices having a full-time position with a sponsoring company throughout their apprenticeship. Again, it is trades that have a higher rate of sponsorship through permanent employment such as automotive service technicians and refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics that demonstrate higher completion rates.

In certain programs there is a strong motivation for apprentices to complete even though there is no legal requirement to work in the trade. Higher wages for certified journeypersons in the trade, pre-screening requirements for entry, industry standards, opportunities in other provinces, and expectations or support from employers likely contribute to apprentices in these trades completing their programs. Employers of trades with elevated safety concerns, such as powerline technicians, will be motivated to fully train their apprentices. The complex nature of the work in these trades tends to attract individuals with stronger basic skills positioning them to succeed. Certification requirements in other provinces may also affect completion rates in BC for trades that tend to be more mobile (e.g., boilermakers). Lower average rates of completion in BC for most trades that are compulsory in other jurisdictions, appear to confirm that an absence of compulsory certification has had a negative impact on overall completion rates. For example, BC completion rates for hairstylists, crane operators, plumbers, steamfitter/pipefitters, and sprinkler fitters are lower than the national average, and many continue to trend lower.

Echoing the trend in overall certification, fewer workers in Red Seal trades in BC are obtaining certification. Certification rates in Red Seal trades averaged 65% in BC between 2011 and 2014, down significantly from 84% during the period between 2001 and 2004. The rest of Canada experienced a much smaller decline, falling from 88% to 76%. This implies that fewer individuals are progressing to complete the full scope of the trade since the 2003 model was implemented, or that more workers are working in the trade without the full certification.

The analysis of completions suggests that despite the large increase in registrations and completions, certification in Red Seal trades has fallen in proportion to other modular sub-trades. This implies that the share of the workforce in BC that is certified in full-scope Red Seal trades has also declined. Workers certified in single first-level modules have lower level qualifications and as such are not afforded the same degree of workforce mobility.

Since 2013 there has been a modest increase in completion rates in BC from 41% to 46%. Despite a strong economy in construction and resource extraction BC continues to lag behind all provinces except Nova Scotia. Completion rates decreased in the Atlantic Provinces, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The rates increased in Quebec, Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia. Saskatchewan has maintained the highest rate at 63%, but even this “high” of 2013 is a decline from the province’s rate of 69% in 2010.[5]

Re-introducing compulsory certifications for certain trades in BC could play a significant role in “rebalancing” the distribution of skilled trades training. Compulsory certification requirements would increase labour market demand for certified workers and related apprenticeship training. Compulsory certification would likely put upward pressure on wages, attracting more workers to the trade, and has been found to raise the prestige of trades, increasing their appeal further.

Re-introducing compulsory certifications will have a direct consequence to improvement in completion rates, improved safety and will contribute to increased productivity.

THE CHAMBER RECOMMENDS

That the Provincial Government:

1. Should discontinue modularized training and certification;
2. Should reinstate compulsory certification, in alignment with the rest of Canada, accompanied by using a clear framework for the review of trades with an effective compliance and enforcement policy, based on evidence-based analysis and input from industry; and
3. That first and second year apprentices be sponsored by a company prior to registering for school.

[1] Modularization refers to the re-designation of trades into modularized sub-trades as opposed to large parent

[2] Literature on apprentice outcomes indicates that those who earn a certification are more likely to be employed full time and earn more than those with no certification. In contrast, those without certification are more likely to be unemployed and earn lower wages. Marinka Menard, Frank Menezes, Cindy K.Y. Chan and Merv Walker, National Apprenticeship Survey: Canada Overview Report 2007, (2007), 24-26

[3] Cohort ratios provide a close proxy for actual completion rates that are comparable over time and across jurisdictions.

[4] Patrick J. Coe, “Apprenticeship programme requirements and apprenticeship completion rates in Canada,” Journal of Vocational Education and Training, 2013. 16 Completion Counts, Ontario Construction Secretariat, 2013.

[5] Apprentice Demand in the Top Ten Red Seal Trades: A 2019 National Labour Market Information Report