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Budget 2012 Backgrounder: Facts & Figures

A prudent Budget 2012 focuses on maintaining existing government services within existing allocations. Increased spending will be in healthcare, education, justice and social supports.  Budget 2012 protects taxpayers from additional pressures, and contains a number of growth initiatives that will help stimulate the economy and create jobs.

Key Messages


Growth

As has been the case in previous years the government growth projections are lower than those of the independent Economic Forecast Council.

 

2012

2013

2014

Economic Forecast Council  

2.2

2.5

2.7

Ministry forecasts  

1.8

2.2

2.5


Risks

The economic risks identified by the government are largely focused on the continued uncertainty surrounding global economic activity.  These are;

In addition the government has also identified several risks to the fiscal plan that are focused on changes in factors that government does not directly control.  These are;


Prudence

To mitigate these risks the government built in 3 levels of prudence.  These are;


Revenue Outlook

The government is projecting a return to balance by 2013-14.  The focus has been on providing the government with the spending authority to manage the provincial books for the coming year, and on targeted initiatives, rather than on significant new spending.

 

2012

2013

2014

Revenue    

43,101

44,603

45,711

Expenses

(43,869)

(44,199)

(45,111)

Surplus (deficit)  

(768)

404

600

Revenue is expected to grow on average 2.9% over the next few years, reflecting rising commodity prices over the next 3 years. This revenue growth includes continuation of the small business corporate tax rate at 2.5%.


Spending

Budget 2012 places an emphasis on protecting the Provinces existing capital investments, as such, no significant program spending was announced.


Debt

Budget 2012 shows an increase in the debt to GDP ratio.  The Chamber is concerned by the increase in taxpayer supported debt.

 

2012

2013

2014

Direct operating debt  

9,286  

9,767   

9,275

Taxpayer-supported debt 

38,736   

41,656     

43,702

Total debt (incl forecast allowance)

57,603      

62,714     

66,354

Taxpayer-supported debt-to-GDP ratio

17.6%   

18.2% 

18.3%